Data shows the genocide in Rwanda 31 years ago is the closest comparison to Gaza we have in the modern history of the world.

Life expectancy in Gaza has plummeted at genocidal speed, mirroring the demographic catastrophe of Rwanda and exposing a humanitarian emergency the world cannot ignore.

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Rwanda is the only modern comparison

Do you see that simple graph above? It was created by the independent journalist, Noah Carl, using data for Gaza from the most respected medical journals and databases available. The data, which I had seen before, is about a year old and what it shows is the DRASTIC drop in life expectancy in Gaza compared to the other wars and conflicts with US involvement in modern history.

LOOK AT GAZA. It’s the blue line.

Without even including any data from the forced famine and daily atrocities of the past 12 months, the life expectancy in Gaza plummeted an astounding 35 years - which is over half. I even wrote about that before, but what I didn’t have, is the visual comparison to other conflicts. It changes everything.

Gaza’s decline in life expectancy far exceeds other regions affected by war or U.S. intervention. Data from Our World in Data comparing Gaza with Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen show that the drop in Gaza is unprecedented in the modern era outside of recognized genocides. While other wars caused death and suffering, none resulted in the abrupt, near-total collapse in life expectancy observed in Gaza.

The only modern comparison is the genocide in Rwanda where life expectancy crashed all the way down to 26.2 years of age at the height of the atrocities. Three decades later, the life expectancy in Rwanda has completely rebounded to 68.7 years and is expected to grow to 72 years by 2032.

Only a genocide drops life expectancy like this. Not war.

To put Gaza’s numbers in perspective, even the low estimate of 60,000 deaths represents a catastrophic proportional loss of life. Gaza’s population is roughly 2.1 million, meaning about 1 in every 35 people has died in the first year of this genocide alone. Imagine if New York City—with roughly 8.5 million residents—lost 243,000 people in a single year, or if London lost 191,000 citizens. On a national scale, it would be the equivalent of the entire population of Iceland being wiped out.

These figures aren’t abstract statistics; they are a human tidal wave—families decimated, neighborhoods emptied, generations shattered—all within the space of a single year. The proportional scale alone signals an intensity of killing rarely seen in modern history, reinforcing why comparisons to large-scale genocides like Rwanda are tragically apt.

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Life Expectancy as the True Measure

Life expectancy captures the depth of this genocide more accurately than raw death counts. Michel Guillot and colleagues documented for The Lancet that Gaza’s average life expectancy nearly halved between October 2023 and September 2024. By comparison, life expectancy drops during the U.S.-backed war in Iraq against ISIS reached just 1.5 years, even when including ISIS-related deaths. Gaza’s decline, measured in decades within a single year, aligns with extreme genocidal events, including Rwanda in 1994,

This approach accounts not only for deaths but also for the ages of the victims. Young Gazans, the majority of casualties, have decades of life ahead. Thus, the societal and emotional loss is magnified beyond the numbers reported in any official tally.

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The Human Toll Hidden in the Numbers

Gaza’s population is under siege. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, roughly 60,000 deaths have been recorded from violence alone since October 2023. This number excludes those who have died of disease, starvation, or remain missing. Independent research paints a grimmer picture. A face-to-face survey conducted from December 30, 2023, to January 5, 2024, by Michael Spagat and colleagues asked Gazan households to report all family members alive on October 6, 2023, and note any deaths. Their findings estimate 75,200 violent deaths and 8,540 non-violent excess deaths, totaling approximately 100,000 when extrapolated to the present.

This is not merely a statistic—it is a demographic disaster. Gaza is home to just 2.1 million people. The proportional loss here dwarfs what the same number of deaths would mean in larger countries. Every life lost represents a disproportionate societal loss, particularly given Gaza’s youthful population. Over 18,000 children have perished, extinguishing futures and amplifying generational trauma.

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Deaths in Context: Youth and Pre-War Mortality

Before the war, Gaza had a relatively low mortality rate. In 2022, only 6,454 deaths were recorded. The first year of war added 41,615 deaths that were named and counted, marking an increase of 640%. Unlike conflicts in older populations, Gaza’s predominantly young population means each death carries an exponentially higher societal cost. The loss is not just numeric—it is the destruction of potential, education, and future leadership.

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The Human Faces Behind the Numbers

The statistics are horrifying, but the lived reality is more devastating. Hospitals operate beyond capacity, with insufficient medicine, equipment, and staff. Children are dying of preventable malnutrition, mothers cannot breastfeeddue to trauma and hunger, and families bury their young in overcrowded cemeteries while airstrikes continue. Schools are empty, playgrounds silent, and the social fabric of Gaza is unraveling. Life expectancy is not merely a number—it is the measure of potential erased, generations lost, and society dismantled.

Eyewitness testimony underscores this human toll. A nurse at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City told The Economist, “Every day we see children come in who should never be dying. We are running out of ways to save them.” This is the real consequence behind the halved life expectancy: lives stolen, futures erased, and an entire community under siege.

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Urgent Call to Action

The world cannot continue to reduce Gaza to a debate over abstract classifications of war or genocide. The demographic collapse, the loss of life, and the collapse in life expectancy demand immediate humanitarian action. The parallels to Rwanda are not hyperbole—they are a stark reminder that when populations are systematically deprived of survival essentials, the consequences are catastrophic.

Gaza is a living, breathing population under assault. The trajectory of its life expectancy, collapsing at genocidal speed, exposes the moral urgency. Delay in humanitarian aid, bureaucratic excuses, and international silencecompound this crisis. The Rwandan genocide shocked the world because it was immediate and undeniable. Gaza, in its ongoing suffering, deserves no less attention.

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Love and appreciate each of you.
Your friend and brother,

Shaun.

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